Insistiendo en la victoria

Victoria versus éxito en guerras limitadas y asimétricas

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21830/19006586.522

Palabras clave:

Conflicto intraestatal; derrota militar; éxito; insurgencia; guerra asimétrica; guerra civil; terrorismo; victoria

Resumen

El uso del término victoria para referirse a una derrota militar del enemigo en una campana COIN es problemático. Una revisión del conflicto Turquía-PKK revela que, tras la búsqueda de una victoria militar unilateral por Turquía, el PKK llevo a cabo una campana sociopolítica más amplia, basándose en una guerra asimétrica e indirecta. La victoria militar no concluyó el conflicto exitosamente, solo cambio su naturaleza. Por lo tanto, sugerimos que éxito es un mejor concepto para evaluar las campanas de contrainsurgencia. Este se enfoca en soluciones políticas y cambia la percepción de una victoria unilateral a un resultado favorable para las partes. Por último, referirse a las fases consumadas exitosamente con dicho termino es más preciso, ya que el resultado en COIN no es simplemente una victoria o una derrota.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Biografía del autor/a

Mustafa Coşar Ünal, Bilkent University, Turquía

Doctor en Políticas Públicas y Administración de la Universidad de Maryland. Profesor de posgrado y pregrado en terrorismo, inteligencia, seguridad y políticas públicas en diversas universidades, incluidas la Universidad de Bilkent, la Universidad de Gazi, la OTAN / Centro de Excelencia - Defensa contra el terrorismo y el Instituto de Ciencias de Seguridad de la Academia Nacional de Policía de Turquía. Sus intereses de investigación incluyen terrorismo y violencia política, conflicto asimétrico, gestión / resolución de conflictos, insurgencia, contrainsurgencia, contraterrorismo, doctrinas y estrategias COIN, inteligencia y seguridad nacional.

Petra Cafnik Uludağ, Bilkent University, Turquía

Doctora en Ciencias Políticas en la Universidad de Bilkent. Su investigación se centra en la interacción de la política y los medios de comunicación, particularmente en la política de otros movimientos sociales y políticos y las prácticas del nacionalismo. Tiene una maestría de la Universidad de Nova Gorica, departamento de estudios interculturales, y una licenciatura de la Universidad de Maribor, departamento de comunicación de medios.

Referencias bibliográficas

Albert, S., & Luck, E. C. (Eds.). (1980). On the endings of wars. Port Washington, NY: Kennikat Press.

Angstrom, J. (2011). Mapping the competing historical analogies of the War on Terrorism: The Bush presidency. International Relations, 25(2), 224-242.

Arreguin-Toft, I. (2001). How the weak win wars: A theory of asymmetric conflict. International security, 26(1), 93-128.

Baldwin, D. A. (2016). Power and international relations: A conceptual approach. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Bulut, E. (2014). A checkmate, not a stalemate: Turkey versus the PKK (Doctoral dissertation). Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School.

Callwell, C. E. (2013). Small wars: Their principles and practices. USA: University of Nebraska. Crenshaw, M. (2007). The logic of terrorism. Terrorism in perspective, 24, 24-33.

Dupuy, K., & Rustad, S. A. (2018). Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2017. Conflict Trends, 5, 2018.

Duyvesteyn, I. (2006). Paradoxes of the strategy of terrorism. In J. Angstrom, & I. Duyvesteyn (Eds.), Understanding victory and defeat in contemporary war (pp. 135-159). NY: Routledge.

Feaver, P. D., & Gelpi, C. (2005). Choosing your battles: American civil-military relations and the use of force. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Fortna, V. P. (2018). Peace time: Cease-fire agreements and the durability of peace. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Galula, D. (2005). Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. USA: PSI Classics of the Counterinsurgency Era.

Gleditsch, N. P., Wallensteen, P., Eriksson, M., Sollenberg, M., & Strand, H. (2002). Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new dataset. Journal of peace research, 39(5), 615-637.

Gray, C. S. (2007). Irregular warfare: One nature, many characters. United Kingdom: Reading University.

Griffin, M. C. (2014). Rethinking victory in counterinsurgency. Carlisle, Pennsylvania: United States Army War College Press.

Gurcan, M., & Unal, M. C. (2018). Reaching a balance of resolve: the enduring conflict between Turkey and the PKK. In E. Lieberman (Ed.), Deterring Terrorism: A model for strategic deterrence (pp. 193-230). NY: Routledge.

Gurcan, M. (2015). Arming civilians as a counterterror strategy: The case of the village guard system in Turkey. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 8(1), 1-22.

Harbom, L., & Wallensteen, P. (2005). Armed conflict and its international dimensions, 1946-2004. Journal of Peace Research, 42(5), 623-635.

Hartzell, C. A. (1999). Explaining the stability of negotiated settlements to intrastate wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(1), 3-22.

In 1994, there could be either political or military solution. (1994, April). Serxwebun, 148. Retrieved from https://docplayer.biz.tr/4016603-Ji-serxwebun-u-azadiye-bi-rumettir-tistek-nine-yil-13-sayi-148-nisan-1994-4-dm-1994-yilinda-siyasi-cozum-de-askeri-cozum-de-olabilir.html

International Crisis Group ICG. (2016) Turkey’s PKK conflict: The rising toll. Retrieved from http://www.crisisgroup.be/interactives/turkey/

Johnson, D. D., & Tierney, D. (2006). Failing to win: Perceptions of victory and defeat in international politics. USA: Harvard University Press.

Kayhan Pusane, O. (2015). Turkey’s military victory over the PKK and its failure to end the PKK insurgency. Middle Eastern Studies, 51(5), 727-741.

Kecskemeti, P. (1958). Strategic surrender. The politics of victory and defeat. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

Kitson, F. (1977). Bunch of five. London: Faber.

Kocher, M. (2007). The decline of PKK and the viability of a one-state solution in Turkey. International Journal on Multicultural Societies, 4(1), 1-20.

Kydd, A. H., & Walter, B. F. (2006). The strategies of terrorism. International security, 31(1), 49-80.

Licklider, R. (1995). The consequences of negotiated settlements in civil wars, 1945-1993. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 681-690.

Mack, A. (1975). Why big nations lose small wars: The politics of asymmetric conflict. World Politics, 27(2), 175-200.

Mandel, R. (2006). Defining postwar victory. In J. Angstrom, & I. Duyvesteyn (Eds.), Understanding victory and defeat in contemporary war (pp. 31-63). NY: Routledge.

Merom, G. (2003). How democracies lose small wars: State, society, and the failures of France in Algeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United States in Vietnam. UK: Cambridge University Press.

Metz, S., & Millen, R. (2003). Future war/future battlespace: The strategic role of American landpower. Carlisle Barracks PA: Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

Ocalan, A. (1978). Kürdistan Devriminin Yolu (Manifesto). Koln: Weşanen serxwebun.

Ocalan’s letter on peace between Turkey and the PKK. (2013, March 22). Euronews. Retrieved from https://tr.euronews.com/2013/03/22/abdullah-ocalan-in-mektubunun-tam-metni

Orr, R. C. (2003). How to win the peace: After the war, bring in a civilian force. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/03/opinion/IHT-how-to-win-the-peace-after-the-war-bringin-a-civilian-force.html

Rapoport, D. C. (2004). The four waves of modern terrorism. In A. K. Cronin, & J. M. Ludes (Eds.), Attacking terrorism: Elements of a grand strategy (pp. 46-73). Washington DC: Georgetown University Press.

Record, J. (2007). Beating Goliath: why insurgencies win. Washington DC: Potomac Books.

Reiter, D., & Stam, A. C. (2002). Democracies at war. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Romano, D. (2015). Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey: Temporary marriage? Middle East Policy, 22(1), 89-101.

Sarkees, M. R., Wayman, F. W., & Singer, J. D. (2003). Inter-state, intra-state, and extra-state wars: A comprehensive look at their distribution over time, 1816-1997. International Studies Quarterly, 47(1), 49-70.

Schelling, T. C. (1980). The strategy of conflict. Harvard: Harvard University Press.

Taydas, Z. (2006). Determinants of civil wars: A quantitative analysis (Doctoral dissertation). University of Missouri, Columbia.

Terror results for 265 days. (2016, March 28). Milliyet News. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/tskbilancoyu-acikladi-4-bin-432-gundem-2217174/

Unal, M. C. (2011). The dichotomy in the perception, conception and the response to terrorism: the case of the PKK. Counter Terrorism in Diverse Communities (pp. 268-281) [Ios Press Ebooks]. 10.3233/978-1-60750-970-7-268

Unal, M. C. (2012a). Counterterrorism in Turkey: Policy choices and policy effects toward the Kurdistan workers’ party (PKK). NY: Routledge.

Unal, M. C. (2012b). The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and popular support: counterterrorism towards an insurgency nature. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 23(3), 432-455.

Unal, M. C. (2014). Strategist or Pragmatist: A Challenging Look at Ocalan’s Retrospective Classification and Definition of PKK’s Strategic Periods Between 1973 and 2012. Terrorism and Political Violence, 26(3), 419-448.

Unal, M. C. (2016a). Is it ripe yet? Resolving Turkey’s 30 years of conflict with the PKK. Turkish Studies, 17(1), 91-125.

Unal, M. C. (2016b). Opening a door for return to home: impact and effectiveness of Turkish repentance laws. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 39(2), 128-164.

Unal, M. C. (2016c). Terrorism versus insurgency: a conceptual analysis. Crime, Law and Social Change, 66(1), 21-57.

Unal, M. C. (2016d). Counterinsurgency and military strategy: An analysis of the Turkish Army’s COIN strategies/doctrines. Military Operations Research, 21(1), 55-88.

Unal, M. C., & Harmanci, F. M. (2016). Turkey’s struggle with the Kurdish question: roots, evolution, and changing national, regional, and international contexts. In A. Dawoody (Ed.), Eradicating terrorism from the Middle East (pp. 293-265). Scranton PA: Springer.

Von Clausewitz, C. (1976). On war. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Descargas

Publicado

2019-10-01

Cómo citar

Ünal, M. C., & Cafnik Uludağ, P. . (2019). Insistiendo en la victoria: Victoria versus éxito en guerras limitadas y asimétricas. Revista Científica General José María Córdova, 17(28), 891–922. https://doi.org/10.21830/19006586.522

Métricas

Estadísticas de artículo
Vistas de resúmenes
Vistas de PDF
Descargas de PDF
Vistas de HTML
Otras vistas
QR Code