Fuerza, competencia, ideología y racionalidad
Análisis de los reclamos y recurrencia de los atentados terroristas (2012-2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21830/19006586.1082Palabras clave:
adjudicación de atentados, conflictos internacionales, datos de panel, repetición de atentados, terrorismo, violaciones a los derechos humanosResumen
El objetivo de este documento es investigar los factores que determinan las adjudicaciones de atentados terroristas en todo el mundo por parte de grupos terroristas y establecer la probabilidad de que se repitan. Para determinar dichas adjudicaciones, utilizamos un modelo de regresión logística de elección discreta. Además, para la probabilidad de repetición de un atentado, aplicamos un modelo estocástico binomial negativo dinámico con datos de panel. Por lo que sabemos, este último tema y su modelización no se han considerado anteriormente. Los principales resultados indican que las adjudicaciones aumentan cuando hay daños causados a civiles, coacción en los atentados, competencia entre grupos e ideología islámica; mientras que la posibilidad de repetir un atentado se reduce con el número de víctimas mortales y las violaciones de los derechos humanos, pero aumenta con el apoyo gubernamental a los grupos terroristas.
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