Choques geopolíticos y cadenas globales de valor
Una estimación por vectores autorregresivos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21830/19006586.1378Palabras clave:
choques geopolíticos, cadenas globales de valor, resiliencia, vectores autorregresivosResumen
El comportamiento de los mercados de productos básicos está influenciado por varios factores internacionales, incluyendo la oferta y demanda, las preferencias de los inversores y los factores de riesgo económico global. Los choques externos, tales como eventos políticos, económicos y naturales, pueden tener un impacto significativo en estos mercados. Por ejemplo, la guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China, la invasión de Ucrania por Rusia y la pandemia de COVID-19 han generado disrupciones en las Cadenas Globales de Valor (CGV), aumentando la volatilidad de precios y la incertidumbre. Los países menos desarrollados, que dependen en gran medida de la producción y exportación de materias primas, son particularmente vulnerables a estas perturbaciones. Este trabajo examina los efectos de estos choques, destacando sus consecuencias significativas sobre el comportamiento de los precios de las materias primas y en menor medida sobre el funcionamiento de las cadenas globales de valor.
Descargas
Referencias bibliográficas
Aday, S., & Aday, M. S. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Food Quality and Safety, 4(4), 167-180. https://doi.org/10.1093/fqsafe/fyaa024
Arita, S., Grant, J., Sydow, S., & Beckman, J. (2022). Has global agricultural trade been resilient under the coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment of 2020. Food Policy, 107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102204
Arteaga, G., Katusabe Mukidi, C., & Shehab, F. (2020). Global Value Chains, the effects and responses of Multinational Enterprises in a crisis environment: A case study on the effects of the COVID-19 crisis. https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1436263/FULLTEXT01.pdf
Barman, A., Das, R., & De, P. K. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 in food supply chain: Disruptions and recovery strategy. Current Research in Behavioral Sciences, 2, 100017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crbeha.2021.100017
Boysen, O., Ferrari, E., Nechifor, V., & Tillie, P. (2023). Earn a living? What the Côte d'Ivoire-Ghana cocoa living income differential might deliver on its promise. Food Policy, 114, 102389.
Büyükşahin, B., & Robe, M. A. (2014). Speculators, commodities, and cross-market linkages. Journal of International Money and Finance, 42, 38-70.
Cantore, N., Lavopa, A., & Rodousakis, N. (2022, August 17). Global value chains in times of multiple crises. UNIDO. https://www.unido.org/stories/global-value-chains-times-multiple-crises
Céspedes, L. F., & Velasco, A. (2012). Macroeconomic performance during commodity price booms and busts. IMF Economic Review, 60(4), 570-599.
Charnavoki, V., & Dolado, J. J. (2014). The effects of global shocks on small commodity-exporting economies: lessons from Canada. American economic journal: Macroeconomics, 6(2), 207-237.
Chavas, J. P. (2000). The cobweb theorem. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 221-224.
Coe, N. M., & Yeung, H. W.-C. (2015). Global Production Networks: Theorizing Economic Development in an Interconnected World. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703907.001.0001
Coulibaly, S. K., & Erbao, C. (2019). An empirical analysis of the determinants of cocoa production in Cote d'Ivoire. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 1-19.
Da, D., & Diarra, M. (2023). Effect of International Commodity Price Shocks on Public Finances in Africa. Public Finance Review, 51(2), 236-261. https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421221137426
Dadush, U. (2023) The policy response to global value chain disruption. Global Policy, 14, 548–557. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13220
Ding, Q., Huang, J., & Zhang, H. (2021). The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis. Resources Policy, 72, 102079.
Dube, O., & Vargas, J. F. (2013). Commodity price shocks and civil conflict: Evidence from Colombia. The Review of Economic Studies, 80(4), 1384-1421, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009
ECLAC CEPAL. (2020). Latin America and the Caribbean and the COVID-19 pandemic: Economic and social effects. ECLACCEPAL. https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/45351
Ezekiel, M. (1938). The cobweb theorem. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 52(2), 255-280
Fang, Y., & Shao, Z. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets.
Ferguson, N. (2021). Doom: The politics of Catastrophe (2nd ed.). Penguin Random House.
Findlay, R., & O'Rourke, K. H. (2003). Commodity market integration, 1500-2000. In Globalization in historical perspective (pp. 13-64). University of Chicago Press.
Flockhart, T.; & Korosteleva, E. (2022). War in Ukraine: Putin and the multi-order world. Contemporary Security Policy, 43(3), 466-481. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2022.2091591
Gilbert, C., & Varangis, P. (2004). Globalization and international commodity trade with specific reference to the West African cocoa producers. In Challenges to globalization: analyzing the economics (pp. 131-166). University of Chicago Press.
Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2021). Impacts of COVID-19 on Global Value Chains. The Developing Economies, 59(2), 154-177. https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.12275
Hommes, C. H. (1991). Adaptive learning and expectations in models with bounded rationality. Economic Journal, 101(406), 27-41.
International Monetary Fund (2022). Global Trade and Value Chains during the Pandemic. In World Economic Outlook, April 2022 (pp. 87-108). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781616359423.081.CH004
Kaldor, N. (1934). A Classificatory Note on the Determinateness of Equilibrium. The Review of Economic Studies, 1(2), 122-136.
Kebede, H. A. (2022). The pass-through of international commodity price shocks to producers' welfare. The World Bank Economic Review, 36(2), 305- 328.
Komarova, I., & Bondarenko, N. (2023). Transformation of global value chains in the context of modern macroeconomic shocks. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(5), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i5.1869
Konina, N. (2023). Global value chains. En World Economy and International Business: Theories, Trends, and Challenges (pp. 611-618). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Larsen, E. M., Pinson, P., Wang, J., & Ding, Y. (2015). The Cobweb Effect in Balancing Markets with Demand Response. In Proceedings of European Electricity Market Conference 2015 IEEE.
MacMillan, M. (2013). The Rhyme of History: Lessons of the Great War. The Brookings Institution. McFaul, M., & Götz, E. (2020). The Power of Putin in Russian Foreign Policy. International
Mensi, W., Shafiullah, M., Vo, X. V., & Kang, S. H. (2021). Volatility spillovers between strategic commodity futures and stock markets and portfolio implications: Evidence from developed and emerging economies. Resources Policy, 71, 102002.
Pahl, S., Brandi, C., Schwab, J., & Stender, F. (2022). Clinging together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID-19 on developing countries through global value chains. World Economy, 45(2), 539-560. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13094
Pedroni, P. (2013). Structural Panel VARs. Econometrics, 1(2), 180-206.
Pirrong, C. (2017). The economics of commodity market manipulation: A survey. Journal of Commodity Markets, 5, 1-17.
Prokopczuk, M., Stancu, A., & Symeonidis, L. (2019). The economic drivers of commodity market volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 98, 102063.
Rojas-Mora, J., & Chamorro-Futinico, J. C. (2017). Dynamics and volatility at stock market indexes of pacific alliance countries. Panorama Económico, 24(1), 71-84.
Saâdaoui, F., Jabeur, S. B., & Goodell, J. W. (2022). Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Finance Research Letters, 49, 103103.
Schwellnus, C., Haramboure, A., & Samek, L. (2023b). Policies to strengthen the resilience of global value chains: Empirical evidence from the COVID-19 shock. https://n9.cl/r8txl
Schwellnus, C., Haramboure, A., Samek, L., Pechansky, R. C., & Cadestin, C. (2023a). Global value chain dependencies under the magnifying glass. https://n9.cl/3ju8s
Smales, L. A. (2017). “Brexit”: a case study in the relationship between political and financial market uncertainty. International Review of Finance, 17(3), 451-459.
Staritz, C., Tröster, B., Grumiller, J., & Maile, F. (2022). Price-setting power in global value chains: The cases of price17 tabilization in the cocoa sectors in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The European Journal of Development Research, 1-29.
Subervie, J. (2011). Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration. Economic Modelling, 28(5), 2239-2246.
Sustainability: Science Practice and Policy, 15(8), 6537. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086537
Van Vliet, J. A., Slingerland, M. A., Waarts, Y. R., & Giller, K. E. (2021). A Living Income for Cocoa Producers in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5, 732831.
Wang, Y., Bouri, E., Fareed, Z., & Dai, Y. (2022). Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine. Finance Research Letters, 49, 103066.
World Bank (2022). World development report 2022: Finance for an equitable recovery. World Bank Publications. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1730-4
Zheng, D., Zhao, C., & Hu, J. (2023). Impact of geopolitical risk on the volatility of natural resource commodity futures prices in China. Resources Policy, 83, 103568. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103568
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2024 Revista Científica General José María Córdova
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
| Estadísticas de artículo | |
|---|---|
| Vistas de resúmenes | |
| Vistas de PDF | |
| Descargas de PDF | |
| Vistas de HTML | |
| Otras vistas | |
